The Theory of Change: To prevent and respond to child marriage in humanitarian and forced displacement settings.

Objectives

The Theory of Change (ToC) to prevent and respond to child marriage in humanitarian and forced displacement settings has been developed as part of a collaboration between Plan International (Plan) and Save the Children (SC). It aims to provide actionable guidance for humanitarian response by informing targeted prevention and support for girls in crisis settings, both those at risk of marriage and those already married, by identifying priority populations, clarifying mechanisms of risks and outlining context-appropriate program options and policy responses.

It is anchored in primary research across diverse crises (Jordan and Uganda refugee contexts, Zimbabwe food insecurity, and conflict/IDP settings in the Philippines), synthesizes global evidence on what works, and draws on established programming models.

The TOC was co-designed across contexts and piloted in Jordan to translate this into practice.

Findings

Findings from the synthesis demonstrate how crisis conditions, armed conflict, climate shocks, displacement, and economic instability, escalate household stressors and harmful coping strategies, thereby increasing the likelihood of child marriage. Particular attention is given to forcibly displaced girls for whom the risk can double, with many already married or at heigtened risk.

It emphasises the complex and dynamic drivers of child marriage that cut across all sectors, that humanitarian actors’ capacity to respond and coordinate a response to the practice of child marriage remains weak, especially in early and acute crises, all of which is compounded by short-term humanitarian funding cycles. This leaves girls under-prioritised and unprotected.

It concludes that integrated, adolescent-responsive, gender-transformative programming across protection, SRHR, education, and livelihoods is more effective, must include married girls without stigma, and can safely engage men and boys as allies.

Summary

This ToC sets out to:

(i) clarify how crises intensify the risk of child marriage and informal unions,

(ii) synthesize evidence on who is most at risk and why, and

(iii) translate that evidence into a practical, context-adaptable Theory of Change for humanitarian actors.

Purpose

The ToC is designed for integrated, adolescent-girl-centred programming, usable as a stand-alone response or as components within broader sectoral work (e.g., Child Protection), and is intended to be adapted to context and iteratively updated based on implementation learning, guiding programme design, policy, advocacy, coordination, and capacity building across agencies.

Audience

This ToC has been designed for a diverse audience including professionals working across programme, policy and advocacy, communications, and fundraising. It serves as a guide for diverse organisations including national actors, INGOs, UN agencies, governments, donors and philanthropic partners to inform project design and set strategic priorities.

More language versions coming soon.