Income Shocks, Bride Price, and Child Marriage in Turkey
Summary & Objectives
This study examines how negative income shocks interact with the practice of bride price to influence child marriage in Turkey. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 1998–2013 linked with province-level weather shocks, the paper analyses whether drought-induced income losses increase the likelihood of early marriage for girls in contexts where bride price remains prevalent. The objective is to identify the economic and normative mechanisms sustaining child marriage despite legal reforms, and to provide causal evidence on how shocks translate into early marriage and related outcomes.
Findings
The study finds that negative income shocks significantly increase the risk of child marriage only in provinces where bride price is widely practiced. Girls exposed to drought shocks between ages 12 and 14 in high bride-price provinces had a 28% higher probability of being married before age 15 compared to unexposed girls, while no such effect was observed in low bride-price provinces. Similar patterns were found for marriage before age 18, early childbearing, and delayed civil registration following religious marriage, suggesting hidden or informal early unions. The results indicate that child marriage functions as a household coping strategy during economic stress, facilitated by bride price norms, and is associated with poorer educational outcomes and less advantageous marriage characteristics for girls.
Recommendations
Policies to prevent child marriage should address economic vulnerability alongside social norms, particularly in regions where bride price creates financial incentives for early marriage. Strengthening household resilience to income shocks through social protection, agricultural risk mitigation, and insurance mechanisms is critical. Legal reforms alone are insufficient; interventions must also tackle entrenched marriage payment practices and improve monitoring of informal and religious marriages. Targeted investments in girls’ education during early adolescence are essential to reduce the likelihood that economic shocks translate into irreversible life-course outcomes.
Share your research
You can share details of your ongoing and upcoming research to be included in the CRANKs online research tracker. By doing this, you are contributing to a coordinated, harmonised global research agenda.