Extreme weather and marriage among girls and women in Bangladesh
Summary & Objectives
The paper investigates how extreme weather, specifically heat waves and dry spells, affects the timing and conditions of first marriage among girls and young women (11–23 years) in southwest Bangladesh. It tests whether extreme heat and rainfall deficits increase the likelihood of marrying in the year of or after an event, whether this effect is strongest for younger girls, and whether marriages contracted during these shocks are of lower “quality” in terms of household socio-economic status, husband’s education and his acceptance of intimate partner violence.
Findings
Using event-history models on 3,636 person-years from 615 women linked with climate indices (1989–2013), the study finds that moderate to severe heat waves significantly increase the risk of marriage in the same year and the following year, with a sharp rise once heat waves exceed about 15 days. The effect is strongest for women aged 18–23, but severe heat also raises child marriage risk for girls 11–17. Dry spells do not significantly change marriage timing. However, women who married in years with long heat waves entered poorer households and married less educated husbands, and women who married in years with long dry spells were more likely to have husbands with low education and supportive attitudes toward wife beating. Together, the results suggest that during climate shocks families may cope by hastening daughters’ marriages or accepting less desirable proposals.
Recommendations
The authors argue that climate adaptation and child marriage strategies must be linked, as climate shocks can increase both the incidence and disadvantages of early and young women’s marriage. Policies should prioritise measures that reduce households’ need to use daughters’ marriage as a coping strategy; such as social protection, livelihood support and education retention for girls in climate-vulnerable areas, and explicitly integrate girls’ marriage risks into climate and disaster planning. They also call for further research on how household economic conditions, dowry dynamics and available adaptation options shape marriage decisions under environmental stress.
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