Evolution in the Evidence Base on Child Marriage 2000-2019

Summary & Objectives

This review aimed to map how the global evidence base on child marriage evolved between 2000 and 2019. It sought to describe trends in volume, geography, topics, and methods, across four domains: prevalence and measurement, determinants and context, consequences, and interventions. It also aimed to identify persistent gaps and misalignments between available evidence and the needs of policymakers and practitioners working to end child marriage.

Findings

The evidence base expanded exponentially over the 20-year period, with as many publications in 2016–2019 as in the previous 16 years combined. Most studies focused on determinants and consequences, while intervention research remained the smallest share of publications. Evidence is concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, with Latin America, East Asia and the Pacific, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and high-prevalence humanitarian settings still underrepresented.

Prevalence and measurement studies have improved geographic coverage and trend analysis, yet subnational estimates, research on boys, and standardized approaches to tracking change over time remain limited. Consequences research confirms wide-ranging harms for girls and their children but rarely assesses long-term economic or intergenerational outcomes. Intervention evaluations have grown but are still few, often small scale, and largely NGO-led, with weak attention to scale, sustainability, implementation, and costs. The strongest and most consistent evidence for prevention comes from education-linked cash or in-kind transfers, while unconditional cash shows no effect on child marriage, and multi-component “comprehensive” programmes have mixed and often unsustained impacts.

Recommendations

Future research should prioritise rigorous evaluation of interventions that are designed and implemented at scale, especially government-led and structurally focused programmes, including supply-side investments in schooling and economic opportunities for girls.

Evidence gaps in under-studied regions, humanitarian contexts, and among specific groups such as boys, very young adolescents, and marginalized sub-populations need deliberate attention. Studies should adopt longitudinal and mixed-methods designs, harmonised indicators, and stronger implementation science, including cost and cost-effectiveness analysis, to inform real-world policy decisions.

Finally, research agendas should be more closely aligned with national action plans and advocacy priorities, focusing on how to shift gender norms and power structures and how to sustain and scale effective strategies to end child marriage.