Evaluating interventions to reduce child marriage in India

Summary & Objectives

The study aimed to identify effective education and child marriage interventions that can reduce child marriage in India. It sought to estimate the costs and benefits of these interventions, including their impact on marriage rates among girls aged 15–17 years, secondary school completion and employment outcomes. It also aimed to calculate benefit–cost ratios to assess the economic value of investing in such programmes for India up to 2050.

Findings

The modelling shows that combining specific child marriage interventions with education interventions could reduce the marriage rate among girls aged 15–17 years from an estimated 16.4% in 2020 to 8.9% by 2050, a 7.5 percentage-point decline excluding underlying secular trends. Education-focused measures, such as improving school access, girl-friendly infrastructure and teaching quality, account for most of the reduction in child marriage but are more expensive than targeted child marriage programmes.

By 2030, the interventions are projected to increase the proportion of young women who complete secondary school by 13.1 percentage points and to raise productivity among 20–24-year-old women by 16.4%, driven mainly by shifts into more formal and better-paid employment. The overall benefit–cost ratio is 16.8, meaning that every dollar invested yields almost 17 dollars in economic benefits; the ratio is 21.0 for specific child marriage interventions and 13.1 for education interventions.

Results are particularly strong in poorer states such as Madhya Pradesh, where gains in school completion are larger, suggesting high returns when disadvantaged regions catch up with better-performing states. The authors note that COVID-19 related economic shocks are likely to increase poverty and could temporarily reverse progress in reducing child marriage, implying that even greater investments may be needed to achieve the projected gains.

Recommendations

The authors recommend scaling up both targeted child marriage interventions, such as life-skills programmes and conditional incentive schemes, and broader education interventions that keep girls in school and support completion of secondary education. They emphasise that child marriage programmes should complement, not replace, investments in strengthening the education system, because the benefits of delaying marriage depend heavily on accessible and good-quality schooling.

Policy-makers should prioritise expansion in poorer states and among the most disadvantaged groups, where marginal returns are highest and child marriage remains most prevalent. The study also calls for sustained commitment despite COVID-19, arguing that economic downturns make it even more urgent to invest in measures that reduce child marriage, expand girls’ education and improve women’s long-term productivity and earnings.