Drivers of child marriages for girls: A prospective study in a low-income African setting
Summary & Objectives
This prospective longitudinal study examines the drivers of child marriage among adolescent girls in rural Malawi using data collected before and after the legal ban on marriage under age 18. Drawing on a cohort of girls followed from early adolescence through young adulthood, the study aims to identify which commonly cited drivers; poverty, schooling, social norms, legal knowledge, and girls’ agency, actually predict early marriage when temporal ordering and recall bias are addressed. By testing a well-established conceptual framework with prospective data, the study seeks to refine theories of change and inform more effective, context-sensitive child marriage prevention strategies in low-income African settings
Findings
Despite widespread knowledge that child marriage is illegal and high reported autonomy among girls in marriage decisions, child marriage remains common, with more than one in four girls marrying before age 18. Most hypothesised drivers are not significantly associated with early marriage once examined longitudinally. Instead, three factors stand out. Girls who are lagging behind in school face a substantially higher risk of early marriage, indicating that weakened educational trajectories increase the attractiveness of marriage. Child marriage rates are significantly lower when caregivers perceive that their community disapproves of marriage before age 18, underscoring the protective role of local social norms. In contrast, knowledge of the law is positively associated with child marriage, a counterintuitive finding that suggests legal awareness alone does not deter early marriage and may be correlated with greater social engagement and relationship formation. Poverty and girls’ self-reported agency show no consistent association with marriage timing in this context
Recommendations
Interventions should prioritise keeping girls on track in school by addressing both educational quality and the financial and social barriers that undermine progression. Community-level norm change, particularly shaping caregivers’ perceptions of what is socially acceptable, should be central to prevention efforts. Legal reform and legal awareness campaigns should not be treated as standalone solutions, as knowledge of the law without supportive social and economic conditions is insufficient to delay marriage. Programmes must move beyond narrow empowerment narratives and engage seriously with the structural and perceived benefits that make early marriage an appealing option for some girls. Future research should combine longitudinal and qualitative approaches to better understand girls’ motivations and the mechanisms linking schooling, norms, and marriage decisions
Share your research
You can share details of your ongoing and upcoming research to be included in the CRANKs online research tracker. By doing this, you are contributing to a coordinated, harmonised global research agenda.