Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence
Summary & Objectives
This study examines the relationship between violent conflict and girl child marriage using population-based data from 19 conflict-affected countries. Drawing on georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey data linked with conflict intensity data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, the study aims to estimate whether and how conflict exposure influences the risk of child marriage. The objective is to move beyond assumptions by providing comparable cross-country evidence on whether conflict consistently increases child marriage or produces more context-specific effects
Findings
The findings show that the association between conflict and child marriage is heterogeneous across countries. In some settings, conflict is associated with increased risk of child marriage, while in others it is associated with reduced risk or no statistically significant change. These patterns persist across multiple model specifications, including measures of conflict intensity, duration, and lagged effects. The results suggest that conflict does not operate as a uniform driver of child marriage but instead interacts with local economic conditions, gender norms, marriage systems, and demographic change.
Recommendations
The study highlights the need for context-specific child marriage prevention strategies in conflict and post-conflict settings. Child marriage should be explicitly recognised as a potential form of gender-based violence linked to conflict, but responses must be tailored to local pathways rather than assuming universal increases. National governments and humanitarian actors should monitor child marriage trends during and after conflict, integrate prevention into recovery planning, and prioritise vulnerable populations such as displaced girls. Evidence-based programming that addresses gender norms, economic insecurity, and access to education is essential to reduce risk in fragile contexts
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